Are people moving out of Seattle and Washington State?

Short answer: No. Washington is still gaining people from elsewhere. In the year to April 1, 2026, 43,870 more people moved into the state than moved out, and Seattle grew by 6,800 residents to 823,400, according to the state Office of Financial Management (OFM). However, what has changed is the pace, and who is coming and going. High housing costs are pushing young families out of the city, to the suburbs and beyond.

If you work with buyers and sellers, that distinction matters. "Slowing" and "leaving" are vastly different.

Growth is slowing, not reversing

 OFM puts Washington’s population at 8,176,300 people, up 61,200 (0.8%) in a year, and migration drove 72% of that gain, not households having babies. The slowdown is real:

• Net migration fell about 30%, from 61,700 to 43,870. The prior year's figure was already the lowest since 2013, outside the 2021 pandemic year.

• King County added 13,000 people, down from 33,600 the year before.

• The Central Puget Sound drew 14,469 net migrants, the region's lowest level since 2012.

• Housing production eased too. The state added about 41,000 units, 7,300 fewer than the prior year; 62% were multifamily.

In other words, fewer people are arriving, but more people are still arriving than leaving.

Growth is spreading out

The five largest counties (King, Pierce, Snohomish, Clark, and Spokane) took just over 62% of the state's growth, but a year earlier their share was more than 76%. This tells us that growth is shifting toward places where housing costs less and the Tri-Cities are the clearest example of this. Pasco (+2,570), Kennewick (+1,430), and Richland (+1,360) all ranked among the state's six biggest city gainers at the city level. Also of note is that Tacoma added 2,600 people, second only to Seattle.

Where Seattle-area movers actually go

The IRS tracks where taxpayers file from one year to the next. The latest county-to-county data, covering moves between the 2022 and 2023 tax years, tells a story very different from the "everyone is fleeing to Boise" narrative.

• About 105,000 people left King County for other U.S. counties, while about 92,000 moved in: a net loss of roughly 13,000.

• Nearly all of that loss went to other Washington counties. King County lost a net 17,600 people to the rest of the state.

• King County gained from the rest of the country. About 62,000 people moved in from other states, against roughly 57,000 who left: a net gain of nearly 5,000.

Phoenix is King County's largest net loss to any out-of-state county at about 600 people and Boise’s impact is smaller still. Los Angeles, meanwhile, sends King County more people than it takes. The big flows run 25 miles north and south, into Snohomish and Pierce counties.

The money tells a sharper story than the headcount. Outbound movers took about $8.7 billion in adjusted gross income with them; inbound movers brought about $6.7 billion. That roughly $2 billion gap is worth watching for local tax revenue and for high-end housing demand.

Who is leaving: families with children

 The overall numbers hide a shift in who is moving. Seattle Public Schools' 2025 enrollment study found that households with children in Seattle have fallen 16% since 2017. The 2023 kindergarten class was 3,714 students, compared with a pre-COVID average of 4,668, and the district points to housing affordability as a major reason.

There was one surprise in the statistics though. Almost 70% of the departing households with children moved out of state, while only 15% moved elsewhere in King County. Families appear to go farther than the average mover.

Prices show the same pull toward cheaper counties, though King County has held up better than many expected. In September 2026, the NWMLS reported a King County median (homes and condos) of $850,000, unchanged from a year earlier, even as active listings rose 31%. The median sale price in Snohomish County was $720,000 (down 0.4%), while in Pierce County – the cheapest of the three – the median sale price came in at $575,000, up 2.7% from a year earlier. A gap of $275,000 between King and Pierce counties explains a lot of the traffic on I-5.

What could change in 2027: tech layoffs and the millionaires’ tax.”

 The April 2026 count only partly captures this year's tech cuts:

• Amazon cut 2,198 Washington jobs in February 2026, after 2,303 in October 2025, with smaller rounds since.

• Microsoft has cut at least 3,200 Washington jobs since January 2025, including more than 600 this summer.

• More than 11,000 Washington tech workers lost jobs between May 2025 and April 2026 (Revelio Labs), second only to California.

• Seattle-area unemployment has risen above 5%, higher than the national rate.

Layoffs alone are not the main risk. The bigger change is slower hiring. Seattle's in-migration has always been a jobs story: companies recruit people from other states and pay to move them here. When hiring slows, fewer people arrive, even if nobody leaves.

A second wildcard: the “millionaires’ tax.” In March, Gov. Bob Ferguson signed SB 6346, a 9.9% tax on household income above $1 million and Washington's first income tax. It takes effect January 1, 2028, and would reach roughly 30,000 taxpayers. The headcount at stake is small, but the income is not. That said, its future is unsettled as a constitutional challenge to the law is pending in court, and on November 3 voters decide Initiative 645, which would repeal it.

If the tax survives, some high earners will likely change residency before 2028, adding to the roughly $2 billion net income outflow the IRS data shows. The effects would show up at the top of the market, such as on the Eastside, waterfront, and island properties, rather than in the overall migration numbers.

My view

I expect net migration to slow again when OFM publishes its April 2027 estimates and show the lowest level of net migration in more than a decade (outside the pandemic). That won’t be indicative of any sort of exodus, as Washington will still gain people from other states, and the flow from King County to Pierce and Snohomish will continue. What shrinks is the number of new arrivals driven by tech hiring.

For prices, I expect to see:

• King County: Prices will be flat to modestly lower in 2027. Inventory is already up about 30% from a year ago, and weaker in-migration takes away some of the demand that used to absorb it.

• The Luxury tier ($2 million and up): Could be the most exposed. If the millionaires tax survives the courts and the November 3 vote, some high-income households could sell or change residency before it takes effect in 2028, adding listings on the Eastside and waterfront and softening prices there more than the county as a whole. If I-645 passes, that risk largely goes away.

• Close-in suburbs (Pierce County and south Snohomish County): Steady. This is where the moving demand is going, and price points are more within reach for families.

• Rents: New multifamily supply plus fewer arrivals should keep rent growth in Seattle's core subdued through 2027.

• Upside risk: if 30-year mortgage rates fall back toward 6%, local move-up demand that has been waiting on the sidelines could firm prices faster than migration alone suggests.

The bigger point is this: the housing shortage has not gone away. A slower year of migration gives the market a breather, not a reset. When hiring returns, the people will too, and the region still is not building enough family-sized homes for them.

What this means for brokers

• When clients ask, "isn't everyone leaving?", the answer is no. More people are still moving to Washington than leaving.

• Expect more King County sellers who are looking to move into Pierce or Snohomish counties. Many are move-up or family buyers needing larger homes – not people leaving the region.

• Out-of-state relocation buyers, mostly tech hires, will be thinner in 2027. Plan your pipelines accordingly.