Housing Market Questions, Answered

Straight answers from housing economist Matthew Gardner to the questions buyers, sellers, agents, lenders, reporters and policymakers ask most about home prices, mortgage rates, housing supply and the Seattle-area market. Each answer links to Matthew's analysis or video briefing. New answers are added every month.

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Home Prices

• Will home prices go down in 2027?

• Will the housing market crash?

• What's actually driving home prices right now?

• What's driving housing right now - & why does generic advice fall short?

• What does a recession mean for home prices?

• How much have U.S. home prices risen since 2019?

• What the latest Case-Shiller index tells us?

• What are the best predictors of home price changes?

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Mortgage Rates

• When will mortgage rates go back down?

• How do Fed rate cuts affect mortgage rates?

• Why are mortgage rates so much higher than the Fed funds rate?

• What is the mortgage "lock-in effect," and when will it end?

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Affordability

• Why do homes cost so much more than we earn?

• Is now a good time to buy a house?

• Will first-time buyers be priced out for good? (answer coming soon)

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Housing Supply

• Is there a housing shortage in the U.S.? If so, how big is it??

• Why does it cost so much to build a home in Washington? (answer coming soon)

• How will zoning changes in Washington affect housing?

• New Home Sales: September 2026?

• Are housing starts and permits rising or falling: September 2026?

• Are baby boomers aging in place holding back supply?

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Housing Demand

• How does America's changing population affect housing?

• Should the government ban institutional investors from buying homes?

• Are home sales picking up?

• What is the difference between a buyer's market and a seller's market?

• Are people moving out of Seattle and Washington?

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Seattle and Puget Sound

• What is the Seattle housing market forecast for 2027? (answer coming soon)

• What are King County home prices doing? (answer coming soon)

• Is Snohomish County still the affordable alternative? (answer coming soon)

• What income do you need to buy a home in Seattle?

• Rent or buy in Seattle? An economist's honest answer

• How big is Washington's housing shortage? (answer coming soon)

• How do Tech layoffs impact Seattle area home prices?

• What does HB 1110 mean for my neighborhood?

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Housing Policy

• What is the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, and what will it change?

• How will Commerce Department disclosure rule changes affect housing data?

• What is MFTE, and does it work?

• Do ADU's & zoning reform actually add housing?

 

The Economy

• How does housing affect the broader economy? (answer coming soon)

• How does shelter inflation affect the CPI?

 

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