How Big Is Washington State’s Housing Shortage?
Short Answer: It depends on which shortage you mean! Washington has under built by more than 175,000 homes since 2010, and outside estimates of today’s backlog run from 140,000 to 250,000. Separately, the state says we need to add about 1.1 million homes between 2020 and 2044. Using that target, we kept pace for the first six years, but barely. Production is now falling fast and, without policy changes, its not unreasonable to think that the deficit could top 300,000 by 2045.
This is a question I get from brokers, lenders and legislators more than almost any other, and the frustrating truth is that the answer depends on who is doing the counting! “140,000.” “250,000.” “A million.” All three get quoted, sometimes in the same meeting.
They aren’t contradicting each other. They’re measuring different things.
Let me break down what each number actually means, where we stand today, and why I think the real story for 2027 and 2028 is the production slowdown, not the backlog.
Three Different Numbers, Three Different Questions
The backlog (what we’re short today): more than 175,000 homes, with outside estimates from 140,000 to 250,000. In my September testimony to the Senate Housing Committee, I put the cumulative deficit since 2010 at more than 175,000 homes, with underproduction averaging more than 22,000 homes a year against household formation. Up for Growth put Washington’s underproduction at 140,142 homes as of 2019, the fifth-worst deficit in the country, and its follow-up report put it at more than 147,000. The Governor’s office has cited a range of 80,000 to 140,000. BIAW, using Freddie Mac’s methodology, landed at 251,894.
The spread comes down to method: what vacancy rate counts as “healthy,” and how you count the households that never formed because there was nowhere affordable to live (the 28-year-old still at home, the doubled-up roommates).
The 20-year need (what we must add by 2044): about 1.1 million homes. This is the Department of Commerce’s official projection under HB 1220, plus roughly 91,000 units of emergency housing. More than half of those homes need to be affordable to households at or below 50% of area median income. OFM translates it to about 45,900 homes a year; most people round it to 50,000.
The run rate (are we keeping up?): 41,000 last year, and falling. This is the number I watch most closely, because it tells you whether the other two are getting better or worse.
The Scorecard: Six Years In
Source: Washington State Office of Financial Management, April 1 population and housing estimates, 2021–2026.
Add it up and Washington gained about 280,400 homes in the six years ending April 2026. At 45,900 a year, the target pace would have been about 275,400. On raw unit count, the state is roughly on track, even slightly ahead. That point doesn’t get made often enough, and the multifamily wave of 2021 to 2024 deserves the credit.
Three problems sit underneath that headline, though:
The pace just broke. The state added only 41,000 units in the year to April 2026, the weakest result in this series. In central Puget Sound, housing growth was the lowest in ten years, with King and Kitsap counties each adding about 30% fewer units than the year before.
The pipeline says it gets worse. Statewide residential permits totaled 38,946 in 2025, down about 32% from the 2021 peak of 56,938. UW data show multifamily permits down 46%, and King County multifamily permits down 63%, from their highs. Multifamily completions trail permits by anywhere from about 20 months to three years, so the strong 2024–2025 completions reflect 2021–2022 permitting, and the 2025 permit slump is the 2027 delivery slump. Not every permit makes it, either as I estimate that about 9% are abandoned or delayed, equaling roughly 5,500 homes a year that never get built.
The mix is wrong. Commerce’s Housing Advisory Plan found the state averaged 23,877 new homes a year for households under 80% of median income since 2020, against an estimated need of 27,011. More than half of the 1.1 million homes must serve households at or below 50% of AMI, and the market does not build that without subsidy.
What the Math Looks Like From Here
To reach 1.1 million by 2044, Washington needs about 819,600 more homes over the next 18 years, or roughly 45,500 a year. If permitting stays near the 2025 level of about 39,000, the state falls short by roughly 6,600 homes a year, a cumulative miss of about 119,000 homes over 18 years. Apply the 93% permit-to-completion rate and the miss grows to about 168,000.
Layer that on top of a backlog the state never closed, and the deficit compounds. Without policy intervention, I project the shortage will exceed 300,000 homes by 2045.
Why It Doesn’t Feel Like a Shortage Right Now
Fair question. Inventory is up, price growth is modest, and buyers have more leverage than they did in 2021. Two things explain the disconnect:
Demand has cooled, temporarily. King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties added 28,900 people in the year to April 2026, down from 50,400 the year before. Slower migration takes pressure off, but it doesn’t create a single new home.
Affordability is the binding constraint, not supply. The Gardner Economics Housing Affordability Index for the entire State in Q2-2026 was 65.1, meaning the median household had only 65% of the income needed to buy a median priced home. In the second quarter, the median-priced home was affordable to the median buyer in just five rural counties. Buyers aren’t absent because there are enough homes; they’re priced out.
A housing shortage doesn’t always show up as bidding wars. It shows up as rent burden (about 48% of Washington renters pay 30% or more of income on rent), as households that never form, and as pent-up demand waiting for rates to ease. When it does, that demand returns to a market with fewer new homes being built.
County Differences Matter
The statewide number hides big local differences. King County’s adopted target is 12,810 homes a year, with about 40% affordable to households at or below 30% of AMI. The county delivered about 35% of the state’s 41,000 units last year, roughly 14,300 homes, so it looks ahead on paper. With its multifamily permits down 63%, that won’t last.
The UW’s Washington Center for Real Estate Research delivered its first county-by-county gap report to the Legislature in October 2026 under SB 5587. It will be a scorecard to watch, because counties whose gap doesn’t shrink face consequences in how state infrastructure money gets prioritized.
What This Means For Brokers
Expect new-construction inventory to thin in 2027–2028. Builder concessions you’re seeing now are a product of the 2021–2024 pipeline. The 2025 permit slump means fewer new homes to sell in two years.
Rents firm as lease-ups dry up. Fewer apartment deliveries plus still-positive population growth means tighter rentals. That shifts the rent-versus-buy math, so this is a good time to work your renter database.
Today’s softness is cyclical, not structural. Rising listings are a rate story, not the end of the shortage. Use that framing with sellers who think they missed the market and buyers who think waiting is free.
Middle housing is the growth lane. HB-1110 and the ADU reforms are opening up townhomes, duplexes and ADUs on lots that used to allow one house. Know what your cities now permit.
The Bottom Line
Washington has underbuilt by more than 175,000 homes since 2010, and the state needs roughly 1.1 million more by 2044. We’ve been roughly keeping pace on raw unit count since 2020, but that streak just ended, permits point lower, and the homes we aren’t building are disproportionately the affordable ones. The shortage isn’t shrinking. It’s getting a breather from slower population growth, and that breather won’t last. For brokers, the next two years are a window to get ahead of the tightening.
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